Hugo Palmer blog: ‘I don’t think City of Troy will win’

This is obviously a race that revolves around City Of Troy from a betting point of view, but I’m against him personally, and I don’t think he’ll win. The vast majority of odds-on favourites in the Guineas get stuffed, and I think you’ve got to go back to Frankel to find the last odds-on winner, so he doesn’t have history on his side. He’s out of a champion two-year-old who didn’t win again after her two-year-old season, and I know he’s by a stallion that didn’t race at two, but I’d just have my doubts about him being as good at three as he looked at two.

Although he showed plenty of speed last year, the vibes I get from Ballydoyle are that they think he’s more of a mile and a quarter plus horse, and there are plenty of horses that have been beaten in the Guineas that have gone on to do great things later in the season. I’d also be surprised if he’s allowed as easy a lead as he’s had in other races, and I suspect Saffie Osborne will be up there hassling him on Ten Bob Tony, so he might just not have things his own way.

I thought Haatem looked very good in the Craven a few weeks ago, and he looked tough and race-fit, so although the vibes from Richard Hannon’s yard are that Rosallion is a superior horse, it just wouldn’t surprise me if he hit the frame at a big price. City Of Troy could well turn out to be the second coming, but with so many talented unexposed horses in the race, I’d be very comfortable taking him on

This is a big jump up in grade for her, but a filly with her looks and pedigree should be competing in these types of races, and with an Oaks entry, you’d hope at the very least she’s up to being competitive in it. There are eight other fillies in the race, and while the favourite Kalpana won a handicap off 78, everything else in there are only maiden winners, and I’d argue we won our maiden as impressively as any of them.

She actually had a gallop at Newmarket at the Craven meeting, and she absolutely loved the track and was very balanced through the dip, so we don’t have any doubts about her handling it the intricacies of Newmarket.

The main priority with her is to try and finish in the places and get some black type, but as I say, she does have an Oaks entry, so hopefully she can run a big race and book her ticket to Epsom.

Kitteridge odds: 12/1

I do think Fallen Angel is the right favourite for this, and I think she looked very good last year, but like the majority of these fillies, she has to prove she’s trained on from two to three. Her sire Too Darn Hot actually went backwards from two to three, so that would have to be a slight concern, but she did stuff Ylang Ylang when they met last year, so it is interesting to see them so close in the betting.

I’ll be interested to see how the French horse Ramatuelle runs, because I suspect if she stays the mile, then she could be capable of running a huge race, but that is a question mark against her for sure. It’s certainly an interesting renewal of the race, but as long as Fallen Angel has trained on, then I do think she is the correct favourite.

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