Jim Crowley Epsom blog: 'It's the Derby so anything can happen but I'd want to ride this one'

Saturday 4.00 – The Derby

As with the Oaks, we have trial winners from Chester, York, Lingfield and Ireland lining up in the Derby, and as with the Oaks, Aidan O’Brien is also responsible for the favourite for the Derby, and again, it’s hard to argue with the bookmakers’ assessment of Benvenuto Cellini’s chances. 

He won the Chester Vase well, the race was run at a decent pace, he handled Chester’s bends well, which bodes well for Epsom, and he stayed the Derby trip, so, boring as it is, he’s the one I’d like to ride, and I think he’ll take all the beating.

His Ballydoyle stablemate, Pierre Bonnard, was the winter Derby favourite, and he looked like a Derby winner at the end of his 2-y-o career, but this season it just hasn’t happened for him yet. I’d forgive him his first run, in the Ballysax, as Aidan’s often need a run first time up, but in his second race he made hard work of finishing second to James J Braddock, and the third horse finished up close too, and I’m not sure all three of them can be top-class.  

Pierre Bonnard has been backed because of his soft ground form, but I’m not sure even soft ground would be enough to see him win.  He’s drawn in stall eight, which is fine, but so is stall 12 for the favourite, and I’m not at all surprised Ryan [Moore] is on Benvenuto Cellini.

Item is an unbeaten Dante winner so has to be respected, but I wasn’t visually blown away by his York win, and he did hang slightly that day, so that would be a concern as Epsom is such a unique track.  Maltese Cross by contrast won the Lingfield Trial, so he should be fine at Epsom, as should the second that day, Bay Of Brilliance, and on softer ground I’d favour the latter to reverse placings with the former.

To sum up, it’s the Derby so it can never be a foregone conclusion, but Benvenuto Cellini is the worthy favourite, he ticks plenty of boxes, and I think he will take all the beating.

Saturday 2.40 – Coronation Cup

The race I’m almost looking forward to most over the two days is the Coronation Cup.  It is worth £1 million for the first time thanks to Coolmore’s sponsorship, and so it’s no surprise they have a big chance of winning it, with three of the six runners.  We know they breed the best middle-distance horses, as their record in the Derby and Oaks show, and they keep some of their best older horses in training, which adds so much to races like this.

Of the Ballydoyle three, Ryan Moore rides Jan Brueghel, which isn’t a surprise. He won this last year – beating Calandagan - and won his prep race at Chester last month.  That was over further than this 1 ½ mile trip, but that wouldn’t be a concern, he stays well rather than being short of pace.  Last year’s Derby winner, Lambourn, obviously goes well at Epsom, and he also won his trial at Chester, in his case over shorter, so he should enjoy stepping back up in trip.

Earlier in the week there was talk of Calandagan not running if the ground was too soft, so it was great to see him declared.  He’s the highest rated horse in the world for a reason, since he was beaten by Jan Brueghel in this race last year, he’s gone on a brilliant winning run, taking five Group Ones around the world, including beating Jan Brueghel in last summer’s King George.

I know Karl Burke thinks plenty of Convergent, and he was very progressive last year.  He beat Al Aasy on his reappearance this season, as much as I obviously love Al Aasy, that form does mean Convergent would have to improve a bit here to beat Calandagan, but he is an interesting contender, and still unexposed.

Twelve months ago Mickael Barzalona was probably slightly outridden by Ryan [Moore], and he’ll have learned a lot from that, but I also think Calandagan is just a better horse now, he’s physically mature, and he seems a little bit more versatile in his racing style as well.  He’s the finished article, and I really fancy him strongly to get his revenge over Jan Brueghel – and the rest - here.

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