Football betting with @DrHorseWhip

After an awfully inevitable return to blog action last week where none of my three selections mustered a win, many men would decide to regroup, take a week off or perhaps even give up entirely. However, as I type this  The Mad Moose has just won a 1 mile 4 furlong maiden at Doncaster which leads me to believe anything is possible and galvanises me as I turn to this weekend’s fixtures.

First up I will be backing Newcastle as they take on Liverpool at St James’s Park. Liverpool’s record without everybody’s favourite Uruguayan last season was terrible and I fully expect a similar loss of form to affect them here. No team in the league relies as much on one player as the Reds rely on Luis Suarez and while Newcastle’s centre backs will breathe a sigh of relief and cancel their tetanus top ups, Liverpool supporters will be resigning themselves to a difficult run in. Daniel Sturridge was impressive after being introduced against Chelsea but my suspicion is that he revels in not being the main focus of the attack and could easily struggle without the Suarez to take some of the strain. Newcastle are on a poor run themselves but are generally good at home and managed a draw against Liverpool at Anfield earlier this season. Alan Pardew will be desperate to guarantee their Premier League status and begin focussing on next season and I fancy his men to make a big step towards that here.

Next we look to League 1 where there has been a massive overreaction to Steve Davis’s statement regarding Crewe’s team selection this week. Davis has let it be known that he will be playing a team composed entirely of Crewe’s youth products which has led to a massive drift in price. However, this is not a team that will be comprised of wet behind the ears youngsters who have never seen first team action. Six of the team who beat Sheffield United last week were home grown talents as were 4 of the men on the bench and the only debutant in the side this week will be 20 year old keeper Ben Garratt. Walsall could very easily shuffle the pack themselves with nothing to play for and the price on offer for Crewe at the moment is too big.

Last but not least we come to perennial blog favourites Northampton Town who are at home to Barnet. As stated last week the “motivation factor” can often be overstated, particularly when the side who supposedly has nothing to play for is at home. Northampton are expecting a bumper crowd for their last game as they celebrate their place in the playoffs and should field a strong team against the Bees who must win to ensure their football league status. Under ordinary circumstances Northampton would be around the even money mark or even shorter and while attempting to gauge the effect of the motivation factor is tricky  I think it has been overstated here. Aidy Boothroyd isn’t a manager who will give his charges an easy ride and I think they should be thoroughly focused on the job in hand.