Analysis: What will happen at the British Grand Prix 2022?

Five of the nine races staged at Silverstone since then have been won by a margin of at least 10 seconds, with skilled drivers able to stretch their leads.

Winners don’t dominate

While victories at Silverstone have tended to be by large margins, this doesn’t mean that the races themselves are a comfortable procession for the winning driver.

In fact, only around two-thirds of the laps completed here over the last 20 years were led by the eventual winner, which is lower than every regular venue except the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Canada.

These two are the only circuits with at least 10 Grands Prix staged over the last two decades that have seen fewer than 70 per cent of laps led by the winners on average. With the Canadian Grand Prix immediately preceding this race, fans are likely to bear witness to some dramatic overtaking at the front of the pack as the summer unfolds.

Expect the lead to change hands

While qualification for this race will surely be contested enthusiastically, starting in pole position has not provided much of an advantage at Silverstone in recent years. Over the last two decades, no regularly-used current circuit has seen a lower share of winners from pole, with just one in every three protecting their lead from the start.

This is in direct contrast to the Spanish Grand Prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, which has similarly high winning margins to Silverstone but with more than twice the proportion of races being won by the driver who performed best in qualifying. We should therefore avoid reading too much into the order in which the drivers line up on the grid here.

Who performs best at Silverstone?

If Lewis Hamilton is to reclaim his Drivers’ Championship crown in 2022 then Silverstone could well be the key to his success. Only one other course – the Yas Marina Circuit in Singapore – has seen him record a higher share of podium finishes.

Hamilton has been in the top three 75 per cent of the time at the British Grand Prix, a higher rate than any other active driver has managed over a minimum of five races.

Only two of his rivals – Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Valtteri Bottas of Alfa Romeo – have reached the podium in at least half of their attempts at Silverstone.

Where else do winners perform well?

In addition to looking at Silverstone itself, we are also able to correlate performances in England with those at other races on the F1 calendar.

Over the last 20 seasons, half of the drivers who won the British Grand Prix also crossed the line first in Japan, so the ingredients for success are clearly similar at these two venues.

The Bahrain International Circuit has also shared a lot of winners with Silverstone, which bodes well for Charles Leclerc who won the 2022 season opener in Bahrain. With the preceding race in Canada also overlapping significantly this will also be a useful predictor of success.

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