Real or Bayern’s treble tilt will tumble in Champions League semis

Real Madrid have suffered just two home defeats in history to Bayern Munich. The likely winner of this season’s Champions League will come from this first semi-final, if Coral’s odds on the outright market are anything to go by.

Pep Guardiola is 6/4 to steer holders Bayern to the trophy. No team has retained the European Cup in the modern era. Carlo Ancelotti, meanwhile, is the second-favourite for glory at 11/4.

In each of the last three meetings between these continental titans, who have 14 European Cups between them, the home team has won by the exact scoreline of 2-1. Madrid host Munich here, so odds of 17/2 say that trend will continue.

Real are 11/8 favourites to beat Bayern by whatever margin they can in the Bernabeu. Guardiola’s German giants, meanwhile, are 2/1 to upset the Spanish super-heavyweights away. A draw is priced at 12/5.

Both teams have scored in 10 of their 14 meetings in the Champions League era, so odds of 16/5 (Madrid) and 15/4 (Munich) on a win and the two sides finding the target have to be considered too.

Ancelotti has been boosted ahead of this monumental match by the fact both Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo returned to training. Wales wizard Bale has overcome a bout of flu, while Ronaldo, who is the Champions League’s leading scorer with 14, has missed the last four with a hamstring injury.

The Portugal skipper’s return to the Real team is vital to their hopes of qualification. Ronaldo bagged a brace on his last encounter with Munich, but has lost each of the two matches he has lined up against them. Odds of 4/1 say he will score two or more again here.

Bale, meanwhile, is 15/8 in the anytime market, and has five in Europe’s elite club competition this term. Bayern have their own deadly wingers in Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, who both netted in the semis against Madrid two years ago.

Guardiola’s threats, like those of his Real counterpart Ancelotti, are obvious. Robben is 2/1, and Ribery 10/3, in the anytime market. Mario Mandzukic (7/4) and Thomas Muller (15/8) are other reasons for Madrid to be fearful.