Italy v Wales betting tips: Dragons on a high ahead of Rome trip

Wales are 33/20 to avoid defeat and get at least the point they need to guarantee a top-two finish in the group while victory at 7/1 would see them leapfrog Italy and win the group.

They will be full of confidence after beating Turkey 2-0 in Baku on Wednesday. Aaron Ramsey struck close to half-time – his 17th international goal – and Connor Roberts sewed up victory in the final seconds after Gareth Bale had missed a penalty.

The lack of pressure on both teams will hopefully lead to an open game and both teams to score can be backed at 27/20, with Italy 13/10 to be leading at both half-time and full-time.

Italy v Wales head-to-head

Wales are playing in Italy for the first time since the Euro 2004 qualifying campaign when they were thrashed 4-0 in Milan, with Filippo Inzaghi scoring a hat-trick.

Wales had won the reverse fixture, though, when interim boss Robert Page was on the bench as goals from Simon Davies and Craig Bellamy either side of Alessandro Del Piero’s equaliser secured a 2-1 victory.

That is the only win Wales have enjoyed in six competitive matches against Italy while their sole success in Italy was a 1-0 friendly win in Brescia in 1988 when Ian Rush was the goalscorer.

Previous XI

Wales: Ward, B Davies, Rodon, C Roberts, Mepham, Allen, Ramsey, Morrell, Bale, Moore, James.

Team news

Interim Wales manager Page is set to make changes after naming the same starting line-ups against Switzerland and Turkey. Chris Mepham, Ben Davies and Kieffer Moore are carrying yellow cards and would miss out on the round of 16 by being booked again at the Stadio Olimpico.

Mancini has also promised changes to his Italy line-up. Captain Giorgio Chiellini misses out with a flexor problem and Paris St Germain midfielder Marco Verratti is set to make his tournament bow after injury.

Key battles

Wales needed their big players to step up against Turkey and they did just that.

Bale has not scored for Wales since October 2019 and wasted the chance to end his drought when he blazed his penalty over with a shot which would not have looked out of place on the golf course.

Bale provided the assist for both goals, though, as well as winning the spot-kick which he missed, and him and Ramsey will need to be at their best if they are to end Italy’s long run without conceding.

Immobile is the main man in attack for Italy and is 7/5 to be on target again as he looks to boost his hopes of winning the golden boot while limiting the influence of Nicolo Barella in midfield will be important if Wales are to get anything out of the game.