2016 Festival each-way bets: Don’t discount Old Guard in Champion Hurdle

Top Notch found a step up in trip to 2m 4f, in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at the course on New Year’s Day, too much to handle when a 21-plus length fifth of eight behind Camping Ground – another in the Champion Hurdle field, but one who subsequently flopped in the Cleeve Hurdle.

Old Guard’s predecessor as International Hurdle winner and Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled, The New One, is the highest placed horse still standing from the 2015 running of the Champion Hurdle.

Mullins menaces the main dangers

Fifth 12 months ago behind Mullins trio Faugheen, Arctic Fire (both injured this term) and Hurricane Fly (retired), plus Jessica Harrington’s Jezki (also currently sidelined), The New One will find competition no less fierce in the 2016 renewal.

With such question marks hanging over so many rivals, all that is required of Old Guard is to get among Henry de Bromhead’s Identity Thief, who has never raced around Prestbury Park before, and remaining Mullins market leaders Annie Power and Nichols Canyon to place.

Although favourite to win the Champion Hurdle this year, Annie Power’s fall when having the 2015 OLGB Mares’ Hurdle at her mercy sticks out as a huge black mark against her name. She is also winless at Cheltenham in two outings since January 1st 2014.

Mullins brought Nichols Canyon over to the Festival last year, and he was a five-length third of 10 to Windsor Park in Grade 1 company over 2m 5f in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. It is his only run around the course, however, with Old Guard more accustomed to Prestbury Park.

Discount Christmas Hurdle

Detractors of Old Guard will point to his poor showing in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over the Champion Hurdle trip on Boxing Day, when beaten by more than 12 lengths as fourth of five to Faugheen, with The New One and Hargam finishing ahead of him, but Nicholls has admitted this festive outing was a mistake.

“If I hadn’t run him at Kempton on Boxing Day he would be a lot shorter price,” said Old Guard’s trainer Nicholls at his recent media day ahead of the Festival. “I probably should not have run him in the Christmas Hurdle, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

“He has had a month off to freshen him up. He can go to Cheltenham fresh and he will love better ground. If you can forgive him his last run, he has a chance of being in the frame. He does like Cheltenham and is still improving.”

In Nicholls’ own words “he is a lively outsider” so, at an ante post price of 20/1 with Coral for the Champion Hurdle, Old Guard is thus surely worth an each-way wager, with a fifth of the odds paying out on the first three past the post.

Related

Coral’s Cheltenham section contains all the latest news, previews and tips, so it’s well worth a visit with the Festival soon upon us.