Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Play or Lay?
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With only a matter of days until the 2024 Cheltenham Festival gets underway, Lewis Knowles gives us his verdict on some of the ante-post favourites for the festival, and whether he wants to be with or against them next week.
Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Play or Lay?
Without doubt the second-best two-mile hurdler in training, and with the number one Constitution Hill not turning up here, this race very much looks State Man’s for the taking. With the benefit of hindsight, State Man might have been one of the all-time ‘ handicap good things’ when winning the 2022 County Hurdle off a mark of 141, and Willie Mullins’ star has since gone on to win eight Grade Grade 1’s on home turf in Ireland as well as finishing runner-up in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
An assured jumper and a very uncomplicated ride, there looks nothing in the race this year that should be up to troubling him, and even if Gordon Elliott does switch Irish Point to the Champion Hurdle, Willie Mullins’ 7-y-o rates as one of the biggest certainties of the week.
Verdict – Play
An outstanding winner of the Triumph Hurdle last year, and although many will be disappointed to see Lossiemouth not going down the Champion Hurdle route, the Mares’ Hurdle looks the logical race for her. Layers will of course hang on to the fact she’s never raced over this trip before, and although she has shown plenty of speed, the way she’s shaped in her races to date suggests this stiffer stamina test shouldn’t hold any fears for this exciting daughter of Great Pretender.
The fashion in which she dispatched of Love Envoi and First Street here in the International last time suggests she’ll be far too good for the opposition in this year’s Mares’ Hurdle, and providing she does see the trip out, there doesn’t look anything classy enough to seriously put it up to her in this field.
Verdict – Play
It’s strange to think that Willie Mullins had never won the Champion Chase up until 2022, and although his dual-Champion Chase winner Energumene hasn’t made the race this year, he still has the odds-on favourite in the shape of last year’s Arkle winner El Fabiolo. Maybe not as flashy or exuberant as other Champion Chase winners in recent years, but El Fabiolo does have his own way of going, and although he’s not the most pleasing on the eye over his fences, he does seem to get from A to B relatively safely enough.
My initial gut feeling was to want to take him on at odds-on, but he has already put Jonbon firmly in his place once before, and with not many of those in behind looking capable of getting seriously involved, it’s probably more logical to side with him than to try and get him beat.
Verdict – Play
An interesting prep this year for Teahupoo who hasn’t been seen since making a winning return in The Hatton’s Grace back at the start of December. His trainer Gordon Elliott maintains that he’s a horse who’s seen to best effect when fresh, but it is very rare to see a horse win a Championship race at the festival following such an absence.
Teahupoo couldn’t quite get it done last year when finishing third behind Sire Du Berlais and Dashel Drasher, and the fact this year’s race looks an even stronger contest does temper enthusiasm for Gordon Elliott’s 7-y-o. The best of his form does read very well in the context of this race, but his reliance on cut in the ground would have to be another negative, and in what looks a wide-open contest, it’s perhaps best to look elsewhere at the current prices.
Verdict – Lay
Sir Gino put up without doubt the most visually impressive juvenile performance of the season here in the Triumph trial, and he is for many one of the bankers of the entire week. The way he sauntered clear from Burdett Road was breathtaking, but whether there is much substance to the form is another matter altogether. The Irish juveniles are usually someway clear of their British counterparts, so while none of them have created the visual impression that Sir Gino has, the standard of those races could just be much stronger than on this side of the Irish Sea.
I do think he’s the most likely winner of the race based on what he’s shown, and I’m perfectly happy to let him go and win, but in against some very unexposed Irish contenders, he does look worth taking on at his current price of 4-6.
Verdict – Lay
Following last year’s scintillating display in the race, I was one of many who thought this horse would go onto win multiple Gold Cups, but as we get closer to the big day, I do find myself wanting to oppose him at around the even-money mark. Fastorslow who is next in the betting has already beaten Galopin Des Champs on two occasions, and although he was a few lengths behind him in last month’s Irish Gold Cup, it wouldn’t be a big shock if Martin Brassil’s horse can reverse that form again on the big day.
Even away from the head of the market, Shishkin, Gerri Colombe and L’Homme Presse all hold pressing claims in what looks a very competitive Gold Cup, and although Galopin Des Champs is undoubtedly the class horse in the race, there is enough there in terms of competition to suggest there could be better value to be had elsewhere in this year’s blue-riband event.
Verdict – Lay
How to watch Cheltenham Festival
ITV will broadcast the first five races of each day at Cheltenham Festival this year, with coverage kicking off at 1pm and finishing at 4:30pm. The final two races of each can then be watched on Racing TV.
All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.
