Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends: The ingredients for success at Longchamp

The German thoroughbred’s surprise win was the seventh by a horse priced outside the top three in the betting since 2010, versus just four comparable victories between 1993 and 2009.

Who has the best record?

This year is set to be the last time that the Arc’s greatest jockey rides in Longchamp. Six-time winner Frankie Dettori is retiring at the end of 2023, bringing the curtain down on an incredible 35-year career.

Including all podium finishes, nobody can match Dettori’s record of 11 top threes in 28 starts since 1993, with French duo Christophe Soumillon (seven out of 20) and Olivier Peslier (eight from 27) next on the list among active riders.

Andre Fabre is Dettori’s equivalent among Arc trainers, with a record eight victories to his name – six of which have come in the last 30 years.

Fabre is just ahead of John Gosden for podium percentage in that period, with the Newmarket trainer having seen five of his 15 entries finish first, second or third. Three of those came via the legendary Enable, who Dettori rode to back-to-back victories and a runner-up finish in successive years from 2017 to 2019.

Which country trains the most Arc winners?

Fabre has been a large part of France’s proud history in its marquee race. More than half of Arc winners have been trained domestically, including 16 of the past 30.

However, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends suggest French dominance is on the wane, with just two of the last eight victors – Waldgeist (2019) and Sottsass (2020) – having come from a local stable, compared with 14 in 22 before that.

British trainers – led by Gosden – have led their French counterparts in recent years, with four winners since 2015. This includes the 2022 champion Alpinista, who was trained by Sir Mark Prescott at Heath House Stables in Newmarket until retiring last November.

How much does experience matter?

As an all-aged race, the Arc gives competitors the opportunity to build on early success or learn from initial mistakes.

Recent results suggest that experience is becoming increasingly valuable at Longchamp, with 29 per cent of returning horses finishing on the podium in the previous decade – up from just 10 per cent between 1993 and 2002.

The second of Treve’s back-to-back wins in 2014 marked the first time in our sample of a winner having run the race before. Remarkably, this has been repeated four times in eight years since, with Found (2016), Enable (2018), Waldgeist (2019) and Sottsass (2020) topping the rostrum having also completed the course 12 months earlier.

Meanwhile, the rate of first-time success has declined over the same period. New entrants were twice as likely to finish on the podium as their returning counterparts between 1993 and 2002 (20 per cent), but their top-three percentage was barely half of their rivals’ between 2013 and 2022 (15 per cent).

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners: 10 of the best

View the latest horse racing odds