Key 2000 and 1000 Guineas trends ahead of the first two Classics of the year
Key 2000 and 1000 Guineas trends ahead of the first two Classics of the year
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The British flat racing season ramps up this weekend with the prestigious Guineas Festival at Newmarket.
The Festival plays host to the first two Classics of the year in the 2000 and 1000 Guineas, with the 2023 event also coinciding with the King’s coronation on Saturday.
The 2000 Guineas is the first leg of the Triple Crown – followed by the Derby and the St Leger – while the 1000 Guineas is one of two Classics restricted to fillies only, alongside the Epsom Oaks. Both races have been run since the early 1800s, when King George III was on the throne.
To identify the key 2000 and 1000 Guineas trends, we have analysed every participant from the last 20 renewals.
How do Guineas favourites perform?
The 2000 and 1000 Guineas are racing’s ultimate tests of speed, with both run in a straight line on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile.
Therefore, a horse’s starting price tends to be a good barometer of its credentials; 15 of the last 20 2000 Guineas and 11 of 20 1000 Guineas have been won by one of the top five in the betting.
Recent results suggest that the 2000 Guineas is the easier of the two to predict, with last year seeing the three shortest-priced horses all finish on the podium. The Charlie Appleby-trained duo of Coroebus and Native Trail finished first and second respectively, ahead of Aidan O’Brien’s Luxembourg in third. All three were priced at 9/2 or shorter before the race.
The 1000 Guineas – in contrast – saw Cachet triumph as eighth favourite in 2022, ahead of 11th favourite Prosperous Voyage. Second favourite Tuesday finished third, while the bookies’ pre-race choice Tenebrism could only manage eighth place.
Overall, short-priced horses have fared better at the 2000 Guineas while mid-priced participants have excelled at the 1000 Guineas. Long shots have struggled in both races, but the 2000 Guineas has seen the odd outsider pay out with five podium finishers having been priced at 100/1 or longer beforehand.
Which jockeys and trainers have the best record?
Over the past 20 years, three-time champion jockey Ryan Moore has the most victories across the 2000 and 1000 Guineas combined (six), with two in the former and four in the latter. He managed to win both in the same year in 2015, with victory in the 2000 Guineas aboard Gleneagles preceding success in the 1000 Guineas on Legatissimo.
James Doyle repeated the feat last year with twin victories on Coroebus and Cachet, having previously gone 15 Guineas rides without a win.
However, neither Moore nor Doyle can match Kevin Manning’s record since 2003. The 56-year-old Irish jockey has placed in the top three with nine of his 15 rides during that time, including two wins in the 2000 Guineas – most recently on Poetic Flare in 2021 – and one in the 1000.
All three of Manning’s wins have come in partnership with Jim Bolger, who ranks second for Guineas success among active trainers.
Frenchman Andre Fabre is the only trainer with a higher podium percentage than Bolger, having seen four of his five entrants across both races finish in the top three. Fabre has one victory in the 1000 Guineas to his name – Miss France in 2014.
Meanwhile, any horse trained by Aidan O’Brien is likely to be heavily backed based on his superb record in the Guineas races. Twenty-six of his 88 entrants have placed since 2003, including 15 winners.
O’Brien is already the most successful trainer of all-time in the 2000 Guineas, with 10 wins including eight in the past two decades. He has also begun to dominate the 1000 Guineas by winning five of the last seven races and is chasing Robert Robson’s all-time record of nine victories.
Does it matter where horses are bred?
Irish-bred horses are enjoying a run of success in both the 2000 and 1000 Guineas, with seven of the eight winners since 2019 having been foaled across the Irish Sea. Overall, more than half of podium finishers in both races since 2003 have been bred in Ireland.
A study of 2000 and 1000 Guineas trends makes depressing reading for the home contingent. British thoroughbreds are without a victory since 2018 when Billesdon Brook sprung a surprise by winning the 1000 Guineas at 66/1. That was one of just three wins for British fillies in the past 20 years, compared with six for colts in the 2000 Guineas.
How do ‘royal’ horses fare at the Guineas Festival?
To mark the King’s coronation, we have examined performances by horses with royal words in their names.
Based on recent evidence in the 2000 and 1000 Guineas trends, Newmarket is unlikely to see a royal winner on this special weekend for the British monarchy. Homecoming Queen (2012) was the last regal victor in the 1000 Guineas, while you must go all the way back to King’s Best in the year 2000 for an equivalent success in the 2000 Guineas.
Among possible 2023 entries, Royal Scotsman looks the most likely to celebrate coronation weekend with an aptly-named victory. The Irish-bred colt is among the favourites in the 2000 Guineas betting having recorded two wins at Goodwood and a runner-up finish at Newmarket as a two-year-old.
